The Guzzler 50k — Race Plan · Jon Gooding

Complete Race History · Jan 2024 – Jun 2026

Every Major Race in Your Strava History

🏅

You have raced 50km trail before — and done it well. UTMB Mt Kosci 50k (Nov 2025): 7h11m, 143 avg HR, 12th in age group. That is the most direct comparable to this race. Your current fitness — strongest BHR form ever — means you are better prepared for this 50k than you were for Kosci.

Brisbane Trail Marathon

April 2024 · Samford Valley QLD

43kmDistance

5h32mTime

142Avg HR

1,934mVert

32 PRs · TRAQ course · strong early-season marker

Black Mountain 50k 🇺🇸

22 June 2024 · San Diego CA

50.5kmDistance

7h35mTime

149Avg HR

1,565mVert

First 50k — solid benchmark, ran hot (HR 149)

The Guzzler 100k — 2024

20 July 2024 · D'Aguilar NP QLD

107kmDistance

18h45mTime (best)

127Avg HR

4,688mVert

19 PRs · 10,370 cal · ⚠️ This was the 100k — different race to 2026

TRAQ Mt Glorious Trail Race

10 November 2024 · D'Aguilar NP QLD

22.4kmDistance

3h14mTime

1,196mVert

14 PRs · D'Aguilar course race — same trails as Guzzler

TRAQ Trail Marathon 2025

27 April 2025 · D'Aguilar NP QLD

42.8kmDistance

5h49mTime

150Avg HR

1,466mVert

12 PRs · 4,028 cal · Same D'Aguilar course terrain

Darkness 2 Dawn

29 May 2025 · Brisbane

42.7kmDistance

5h8mMoving Time

531mVert

13 PRs · Road ultra · midnight finish · strong aerobic base

The Guzzler 100k — 2025

19 July 2025 · D'Aguilar NP QLD

107kmDistance

20h11mTime

127Avg HR

4,898mVert

RE 852 · 10,402 cal · ⚠️ This was the 100k — different race to 2026

2025 Pinnacles Classic

15 June 2025 · D'Aguilar NP QLD

18.3kmDistance

2h19mTime

864mVert

D'Aguilar trails — "recovery run" · 1 day before Guzzler 2025

Washpool 50k

21 March 2026 · Washpool NP NSW

50kmDistance

6h57mTime

146Avg HR

1,297mVert

"Not stellar prepared" — 38min faster than Black Mountain

★ Most Comparable

UTMB Mt Kosci 50k

27 November 2025 · Thredbo / Kosciuszko NSW

50.6kmDistance

7h11mTime

143Avg HR

1,857mVert

12th in age group · 50k PR (7h22m best effort) · 6 PRs · stunning execution

2026 Pinnacles Classic

8 March 2026 · D'Aguilar NP QLD

18kmDistance

2h24mTime

149Avg HR

828mVert

D'Aguilar terrain — 13 days before Washpool

🎯 Target Race

The Guzzler 50k — 2026

Saturday 18 July 2026 · D'Aguilar NP QLD · 20 days away

~50kmDistance

Sub-7h11mGoal

~143Target Avg HR

You know this course · Fitter than Kosci · Beat your 50k best

Primary Benchmark

UTMB Mt Kosci 50k — Your Race Blueprint

UTMB Mt Kosci 50k — Nov 2025

27 November 2025 · Thredbo, Kosciuszko NP NSW

7h11mRace time

143Avg HR

1,857mVert gain

4,655Calories

12thAge group

50k best effort (on-race)7h22m PR

Max HR on course163 bpm

Avg power (watts)246W

Avg cadence73 rpm

Vert gain (Guzzler est.)~4,800m (more than Kosci)

Pacing styleStrong opener, held well

Last trail run before14.9km · 5 days out

Last BHR before16km · 12 days out

⚠️

Key difference: The Guzzler 50k has roughly 2.5× more vert than Kosci. Kosci had 1,857m gain — the Guzzler 50k shares terrain with the 100k course which averages ~4,800m per 50km equivalent. Expect significantly more walking on climbs. Your HR target should be the same (143) but your pace will be slower due to the extra vert. Do not use Kosci pace as a pace target — use Kosci HR as the guide.

📊

Your 50k execution at Kosci was excellent. You averaged 143 HR across 7h11m — just below zone 3 — with a max of 163. Your opening kms were controlled (HR 106–134 for the first 6km while warming up on the flats), then settled into 140–155 range for the meat of the race. That discipline is exactly what you need to replicate on D'Aguilar's bigger climbs. Your 50k PR set during that race was 7h22m (best effort segment) — the race itself was 7h11m.

What the Data Shows

Proven Taper Patterns Across All Races

UTMB Mt Kosci 50k (Nov '25) ★

7h11m · 143 avg HR · 12th age group

Last long BHR trail16km · 12 days out

Last trail run14.9km · 5 days out

Week 2 sessionsEasy road 5.4km + 5.4km

Race day HR143 avg — controlled

Result50k PR · 12th AG

Guzzler 100k (Jul '24) ✓

18h45m — course best (100k)

Last long trail23km · 13 days out

Last trail run10.7km · 4 days out

Week 2 sessions3–8km easy road only

Race day HR127 avg (ultra pace)

Washpool 50k (Mar '26)

6h57m — "not stellar prepared"

Last long trailBHR 32km · 15 days out

Mid-taper racePinnacles 18km · 13 days out

Final 10 days5–8km easy only

Still ran6h57m — 38min faster than BM

Black Mountain 50k (Jun '24)

7h35m — first 50k

Last long trail15km · 14 days out

Last run before5.5km · 1 day out

Race day HR149 avg — ran too hot

vs Kosci24min slower, 6bpm higher HR

✅

The pattern that produced your best 50k (Kosci): Last big trail effort 12 days out. A couple of very short easy runs in week 2. Last trail run 5 days out (14.9km, easy). Then rest. This plan mirrors that exactly — with a slightly longer last trail run (18–20km vs 14.9km) to account for the extra D'Aguilar vert on race day.

The Plan

20-Day Taper — Day by Day

💪

Your fitness right now is the best of your running career. Jun 13: BHR 32km/1,296m (RE 438). Jun 20: Trail 23km/900m (RE 303). Jun 27: BHR Social 29km/1,331m (RE 310 — yesterday). You are more fit right now than you were going into Kosci or Washpool. The only job from today is to arrive at the start line fresh, not to add fitness.

Week 1

Controlled Unload · 28 Jun – 5 Jul

~65% of normal load · Clear Saturday's BHR fatigue · One last quality session · Final long trail run Saturday

Sun28 JunRest

Complete Rest

29km / 1,331m / RE 310 yesterday. Walk the dog. Nothing else. Adding anything here delays recovery and eats into your taper.

Mon29 JunEasy

Easy Road Flush

7–8km · Flat road · HR <146
Zone 1–2 only. Blood flow, not fitness. Cut to 5km if legs still heavy from Saturday.

Tue30 JunRest

Rest

Dog walk only. Prioritise 8h sleep.

Wed1 JulKey Session

Last Quality Run

10km road · 3×10min tempo
2km warmup → 3×10min at 3.0–3.2 m/s (HR 148–154, zone 3) with 3min jog recovery → 2km cooldown. Finish strong, not exhausted. This is the last hard stimulus before race day.

Thu3 JulEasy

Easy Road Run

7–8km · Zone 2
Comfortable and conversational. Cadence above 78rpm. Absorb Wednesday.

Fri4 JulRest

Rest

Full rest. Sleep in. Let Wednesday's session absorb fully.

Sat5 Jul · 13 days to raceLast Long Run

Final Confidence Trail Run

18–20km · 500–600m gain · Zone 2 throughout · Conversational pace
Your best pre-50k taper (Kosci) had a 16km trail run at 12 days out. This mirrors that pattern. Run D'Aguilar terrain if possible — course familiarity is a real advantage. The purpose is confidence, not fitness. Finish feeling like you could have done more.

Week 2

Sharpen · 6–12 Jul

~35% of normal load · Short quality touches · Last trail run Saturday · Mirrors your Kosci pre-race week exactly

Sun6 JulRest

Walk Only

Recovery from Saturday. Dog walk only.

Mon7 JulEasy

Easy Road Run

6–7km · Zone 1–2 · Flat
Mirrors your Kosci taper: 5.4km easy road run 11 days out. Loose, effortless.

Tue8 JulRest

Rest

Full rest. Glycogen supercompensation is happening. Sleep well.

Wed9 JulSharpener

Leg Sharpener

7km · 4×3min zone 4 effort
2km warmup → 4×3min at HR 161–170 with 90sec recovery → 2km cooldown. ~40min total. Wakes up fast-twitch fibres without meaningful fatigue cost. Legs should feel snappy, not tired.

Thu10 JulEasy

Easy Run

5–6km · Zone 1 · HR <140
If legs feel flat and heavy, that's taper madness — completely normal. Don't react.

Fri11 JulRest

Rest

Full rest. Start mentally rehearsing the course segments.

Sat12 Jul · 6 days to raceLast Trail Run

Short Trail Activation

10–12km · 300–400m gain · Easy zone 2 throughout
Mirrors your Kosci pre-race pattern: 14.9km trail, 5 days out. Last time in trail shoes on hills before race week. Run D'Aguilar if possible — the last 12km of the Guzzler course is a valuable preview. This is a gear check, not a workout. No surges.

Race Week

Arrive Fresh · 13–18 Jul

Minimal load · Zero fatigue · Sleep is the highest ROI activity this week

Sun13 JulRest

Walk Only

Full recovery. Light walking. Mentally map the race.

Mon14 JulEasy

Easy Shakeout

4–5km · Very easy · Zone 1
Legs will feel heavy. Taper madness. The fitness is there — trust it.

Tue15 JulRest

Rest

Eat well. Sleep 8h+. Electrolytes in every drink today.

Wed16 JulActivation

Final Neuromuscular Activation

25–30min easy + 4×20sec accelerations at race cadence
Wake the system without fatigue. Done in 35min. Begin carb loading today — elevated carbs at every meal.

Thu17 JulRace Prep

Full Race Preparation

Gear laid out. Pack checked. Nutrition confirmed. High carb all day — familiar foods only. Light dinner by 6pm. Bed by 9pm. No new gear, no new food, no last-minute decisions.

Saturday18 July 2026 · Race StartRace Day 🏁

THE GUZZLER 50k

You have run this exact terrain. You raced 50km at Kosci and placed 12th in your age group. You are fitter now than you were then. You know what 143 HR feels like on a 50k trail race. Go run a new personal best.

Race Day Execution

Pacing Strategy — Built from Kosci Data

Your Heart Rate Zones

<117118–146147–160161–175176+

Race target zones: Z2 (118–146) — km 0–30 Z2–3 (140–152) — km 30–45 Race it — km 45–50

🎯

The Kosci key: your opening 6km averaged HR 106–134. That slow start on the flat Thredbo valley floor let you build into the race. The Guzzler starts with vert immediately — so consciously run the first climb 10–15 sec/km slower than feels right. Your Kosci race then held 140–155 HR throughout the middle sections and 147–152 in the final 10km. That is the template.

Segment	Target HR	Zone	Pacing Cue
Km 0–10 Opening — with vert from the gun	130–140	Zone 1–2	The vert will make this feel harder than the HR suggests. Walk steep climbs from the start — HR 140 on a 15% grade is fine. Your Kosci opening was HR 134 avg for the first 10km. Mirror that discipline even though this course hits you with climb immediately.
Km 10–30 Build into race pace	138–147	Zone 2	Your Kosci mid-race held 145–152 on bigger climbs and 131–138 on descents and flats. Let HR fluctuate with terrain but average around 143. Eat every 30min regardless of hunger. Cadence check: keep above 70rpm on runnable sections.
Km 30–45 The business end	143–155	Zone 2–3	D'Aguilar's back half has more sustained climbing than Kosci. Walk technical ascents aggressively — short steps, arms on thighs. Run every runnable metre. Your Kosci data shows you held form well through here — replicate that discipline. Electrolytes every aid station.
Km 45–50 Empty the tank	155–163	Race It	5km from a 50k finish. Your Kosci final lap hit 163 max HR. You've earned the right to push. Run everything you can run, walk only what you must. Sub-7h11m target — the Guzzler course is harder than Kosci, so sub-7h30m is a strong result, sub-7h is exceptional.

📐

Time reality check for D'Aguilar vert: Kosci had 1,857m gain in 7h11m. The Guzzler 50k shares terrain with the 100k course (~4,800m/100km = ~2,400m per 50km). That's ~550m more gain than Kosci. Expecting 20–35min slower than Kosci for equivalent effort is realistic — target time: 7h30m–7h45m. If conditions are good and you execute the pacing, sub-7h11m is achievable but requires a perfect day.

Fuelling

Nutrition Plan — ~4,650 Calories to Replace

🔥

Kosci burned 4,655 cal in 7h11m. Expect similar at the Guzzler given similar distance, higher vert (slightly higher burn rate). Target 60–70g carbs/hour. Start fuelling within the first 30min — don't wait for hunger signals. Your Kosci execution was strong; replicate it exactly.

Now → Wed 16 Jul

Normal eating + prioritise sleep

Don't restrict, don't overfuel. Consistency is the goal. 8h sleep per night is higher ROI than any nutrition tweak at this point.

Wednesday 16 Jul

Begin carb loading

Extra serving of rice, pasta, bread, sweet potato at every meal. Target ~500–600g carbs across the day. Gradual increase — not a feast. Reduce fibre and fat. Familiar foods only.

Thursday 17 Jul

High carb all day + electrolyte pre-load

Maintain elevated carbs. Electrolytes in every drink. Light dinner by 6pm — low fibre, low fat, high carb. Nothing new. In bed by 9pm.

Race morning · Sat 18 Jul

Pre-race breakfast — what you used at Kosci

Eat 2–3 hours before start. High carb, low fibre, low fat. Whatever worked at Kosci and BHR long runs. No experiments. Coffee if that's normal for you.

On course — every 30min

60–70g carbs/hour from minute 30

Start eating before you're hungry — this is non-negotiable. Alternate gels and real food. At every aid station: eat something, top up water, take electrolytes. If stomach is unhappy, switch to liquid calories (sports drink) and back off solids temporarily.

Hydration

Electrolytes every aid station · Pale yellow target

July D'Aguilar is cold at night but you'll sweat on every climb. Sodium balance is critical — don't overhydrate. Pale yellow urine = on track. Dark = drink more. Clear = slow down on fluids and add electrolytes.

Distilled from your race data

Golden Rules for Race Day

HR 143 average — your Kosci numberYour best 50k execution averaged exactly 143 HR across 7h11m and landed you 12th in age group. That is your ceiling for the opening 30km. Going over 147 in the first hour on this course means you will pay after km 35.

Walk every climb above ~15% gradeYour Kosci cadence on steep sections dropped to 48–55 rpm — that's a hike, not a run, and it's the correct call. Power hiking on D'Aguilar's steeper climbs is faster and cheaper than a grinding shuffle. Use poles if you have them.

When in doubt, skip the sessionA missed easy run 2 weeks before a 50k costs zero fitness. Arriving fatigued costs you 20–40 minutes of race time. Your Kosci taper included very little volume in weeks 1–2 — that conservatism delivered a 50k PR and age-group placing.

Eat before you're hungry, drink before you're thirstyYour Kosci burn was 4,655 cal in 7h. You cannot replace it all but you can manage the deficit. Miss a feeding window and you'll feel it 60min later — by then it's too late to recover quickly.

Nothing new on race dayNo new gear, no new nutrition, no new strategy. Your Kosci kit and nutrition system is proven. The one exception: caffeine gels if you want an energy boost in the final 15km.

Taper madness is real — ignore itRace week legs will feel heavy and flat. This is glycogen supercompensation and it's a sign the taper is working. Do not add sessions because you feel ordinary. Trust the process that produced your Kosci result.

Sleep is training8h sleep every night in the taper period outperforms any easy run you could add. Prioritise sleep above everything else in race week, especially the 3 nights before race day.

You know this courseYou've run D'Aguilar extensively — BHR loops, TRAQ races, Saturday socials. You know Hell Hole, the E-Break, South Boundary, the Kokoda Track. Use that knowledge to pace the sections you've already run a hundred times.

Quick Reference

Full 20-Day Plan at a Glance

Date	Day	Days Out	Session	Volume	Type
28 Jun	Sun	20	Rest / dog walk	—	Rest
29 Jun	Mon	19	Easy road run (leg flush)	7–8km	Easy
30 Jun	Tue	18	Rest / dog walk	—	Rest
1 Jul	Wed	17	Tempo run — 3×10min	10km	Quality
3 Jul	Thu	15	Easy road run	7–8km	Easy
4 Jul	Fri	14	Rest	—	Rest
5 Jul	Sat	13	Last long trail run	18–20km	Key
6 Jul	Sun	12	Walk only	—	Rest
7 Jul	Mon	11	Easy road run	6–7km	Easy
8 Jul	Tue	10	Rest	—	Rest
9 Jul	Wed	9	Leg sharpener — 4×3min	7km	Sharp
10 Jul	Thu	8	Easy run	5–6km	Easy
11 Jul	Fri	7	Rest	—	Rest
12 Jul	Sat	6	Last trail run	10–12km	Key
13 Jul	Sun	5	Walk only	—	Rest
14 Jul	Mon	4	Easy shakeout	4–5km	Easy
15 Jul	Tue	3	Rest	—	Rest
16 Jul	Wed	2	Activation + strides · Begin carb load	30min	Sharp
17 Jul	Thu	1	Race prep · Bed by 9pm	—	Prep
18 Jul	SAT	0	🏁 THE GUZZLER — 50km	50km	Race

The Guzzler 50kRace Plan

Every Major Race in Your Strava History

UTMB Mt Kosci 50k — Your Race Blueprint

Proven Taper Patterns Across All Races

20-Day Taper — Day by Day

Pacing Strategy — Built from Kosci Data

Nutrition Plan — ~4,650 Calories to Replace

Golden Rules for Race Day

Full 20-Day Plan at a Glance

The Guzzler 50k
Race Plan